TODAY’S GUEST COMMITMENT
COO and CIO
At Linda, we value discipline, conviction, and alignment.
We’re not chasing hype. We’re building something that lasts, a legacy.
Hey there!
"This isn’t your usual vibe check. This is what’s on our minds — raw, real, and strategic. A direct line into our thinking as we guide Linda AGI through the chaos to clarity."
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THE OPINION
Tech: Cracks in the Cathedral
John:
Tech has been the market’s cathedral — towering, seemingly eternal. But now the walls are creaking.
Nasdaq weakness isn’t sudden; breadth peaked July 3rd.
Semiconductors ($SMH): Still holding 280. Lose it, and the quake spreads.
Software ($IGV): Failed its breakout. Below Q4 highs = bearish. But reclaim 108? Expect a sharp snapback.
Daniela:
This is a binary test. Bulls and bears both think they’ve got the signal — but the tape decides. When it’s coin-flip territory, you don’t guess. You stalk.
THE OPINION
Fed Speak: Jackson Hole as Street Theater
Daniela:
Jackson Hole isn’t policy — it’s theater.
Waller & Bowman: Want cuts.
Bostic, Schmid, Hammack: Against cuts.
Goolsbee: On the fence.
Add in politics — Lisa Cook under DOJ scrutiny, Trump circling for Fed seats — and Fed independence looks fragile.
John:
History is the better guide:
S&P Futures: Post-JH usually dip 4 weeks, then rally 12.
₿ Bitcoin: August is weak, but Q4 tends to recover.
Takeaway: Fade August drama. Prep for Q4 setup.
🛒 Walmart: Consumer as Reality Check
John:
Walmart = the true consumer barometer ($2B in daily sales). Their quarter was stronger than headlines admit:
E-commerce +26% — profitable and scaling faster than Target.
1/3 of deliveries under 3 hours.
Raised forward guidance.
Daniela:
Tariffs are hitting the lowest-income shoppers hardest — opposite of the political narrative. But Walmart, Amazon, and Costco can absorb it. Smaller chains? They don’t stand a chance.
👉 Scale beats fragility.
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United Vision: Where We’re Bullish (until further guidance)
Daniela:
We’re in a test of nerves:
Tech is testing faith.
The Fed is testing patience.
Tariffs are testing consumers.
John:
August pain is normal — it’s the shakeout zone before Q4. Don’t chase, don’t guess. Wait for the levels.
The cathedral isn’t collapsing yet — but the walls are creaking.
What advice would you give?
Patience beats prediction. Use August volatility as prep, not panic. The real opportunity window opens into Q4.
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