Linda Vibe Check Wrap up

Dear Investors,

Welcome to this week’s Friday Vibe Check! We’re diving into the latest market shifts, hedge fund moves, and emerging trends shaping the investment landscape.

Today's Wrap UP

• Crypto Market & Infrastructure Vibe Check

• DraftKings & Peer-to-Peer Betting Economy Vibe Che …

• AI Infrastructure & Nvidia Vibe Check

• Alibaba & China’s Tech Resurgence Vibe Check

• QQQ & Rare Asset Theory Vibe Check

• Trump, Meme Coins & Market Absurdity Vibe Check

• Web3 & Consumer App Shift Vibe Check

• Regulation & U.S. Policy Vibe Check

• 13F Hedge Fund Moves Vibe Check

• Final Action Plan: Where to Invest?

Crypto Market & Infrastructure Vibe Check

💡 Vibe: Cautiously bullish – solid infrastructure, but needs consumer adoption.

📈 Key Takeaways:

• Crypto infrastructure is reliable, as shown by Trump’s meme coin launch on Solana.

• Market remains thin, volatile, and lacks liquidity despite institutional flows.

• Narrative shift: Focus moving from infrastructure to real-world applications.

• ETFs & institutional adoption (BlackRock, sovereign wealth funds) signal long-term growth.

🔮 Prediction: Speculation will drive short-term pain, but regulatory clarity and mainstream adoption will fuel the next big run.

DraftKings & Peer-to-Peer Betting Economy Vibe Check

🎰 Vibe: Wildly bullish – gambling meets finance meets super app.

📈 Key Takeaways:

• DraftKings is evolving into a financial platform with peer-to-peer betting.

• Super Bowl betting up 15%, proving the degenerate economy is thriving.

• Crypto & stablecoins will integrate into betting, enabling frictionless wagers.

• Betting is cultural: "Men will gamble on anything."

🔮 Prediction: DraftKings will become a sports finance juggernaut, integrating crypto wallets and social features.

AI Infrastructure & Nvidia Vibe Check

🚀 Vibe: Mega bullish – AI spending will 10X from here.

📈 Key Takeaways:

• Data center spending projected to hit $300B+ annually by 2026.

• Nvidia remains dominant despite regulatory concerns.

• AI + Crypto convergence will drive decentralized applications.

• Government restrictions could backfire, limiting domestic AI growth.

🔮 Prediction: AI will create a trillion-dollar infrastructure market, and while Nvidia leads, software will drive the biggest gains.

Alibaba & China’s Tech Resurgence Vibe Check

🐲 Vibe: Underappreciated, but structurally bullish.

📈 Key Takeaways:

• Xi Jinping is supporting tech, creating policy tailwinds for Alibaba & Tencent.

• Jack Ma’s return signals a pro-business shift.

• Global investors fear China risk, but low sellers = potential upside.

• De-globalization: China is building its own tech stack.

🔮 Prediction: Alibaba & Tencent will rally hard in 2024-2025, but China will eventually separate from U.S. tech dominance.

QQQ & Rare Asset Theory Vibe Check

📊 Vibe: Bullish, but scarcity is the real edge.

📈 Key Takeaways:

• Nasdaq is "indestructible" in a de-globalized world.

• Software defies GDP shrinkage by unlocking new economic models.

• Big Tech has a massive economic moat—new FAANG-like companies are nearly impossible to build today.

🔮 Prediction: QQQ remains one of the best long-term holdings as Big Tech continues to dominate.

Trump, Meme Coins & Market Absurdity Vibe Check

🃏 Vibe: Absolute chaos, but revealing.

📈 Key Takeaways:

• Trump’s meme coin proved the power of hype, essentially launching a $75B crypto project overnight.

• Liquidity is thin, meaning single events can wipe out entire sectors.

• Regulatory shift: Trump’s team is aggressively pro-crypto.

• Institutions stacking Bitcoin while retail chases meme coins.

🔮 Prediction: Meme coins will remain wildly speculative, but a regulatory shift could bring serious institutional capital.

Web3 & Consumer App Shift Vibe Check

📱 Vibe: It’s time to build, but execution matters.

📈 Key Takeaways:

• Consumer apps need to hide crypto—users don’t care about chains, wallets, or DeFi.

• Earn-to-play models (e.g., Golphin) could be the next frontier.

• Web3 is like 2005 social media—big winners haven’t been built yet.

🔮 Prediction: The next bull market will be consumer-driven, not infrastructure-driven.

Regulation & U.S. Policy Vibe Check

🏛 Vibe: Regulatory tide is turning in favor of crypto, but risks remain.

📈 Key Takeaways:

• Banks (Citi, BNY Mellon) entering crypto custody is a game-changer.

• Regulatory clarity (stablecoins, market laws) is the missing piece for mass adoption.

• The SEC has failed to protect retail (FTX debacle).

• Trump’s deregulation could supercharge crypto growth, but also risks creating a Wild West.

🔮 Prediction: If Trump wins, crypto policy accelerates massively, bringing both huge opportunities and inevitable scams.

13F Hedge Fund Moves Vibe Check

High-Conviction Trades

Final Action Plan: Where to Invest?

📌 Top Buys: 

✅ TSM – AI Data Center Boom, undervalued
✅ BMA – Argentina reform play
✅ Sketchers (SKX) – Boomer spending, gaining market share
✅ Healthcare (HCA, UHS, TEVA) – Aging population + election-year policy tailwinds ✅ Delta (DAL) & American Airlines (AAL) – Travel demand remains strong
✅ Virtu Financial (VIRT) – ETF & market-making boom

🚫 Avoid / Low Conviction:

• Microsoft (MSFT) – Expensive, CapEx drag

• Estee Lauder (EL) – 41x PE, overvalued

• Coca-Cola (KO) – Solid but wait for a pullback

📢 TL;DR: BUY: TSM, BMA, Sketchers, Healthcare, Travel, Virtu

🚀 HOLD: Nvidia, Meta, Uber

📊 AVOID:Microsoft, Estee Lauder ❌

Final Thoughts: This week, the macro landscape is evolving fast—AI and crypto are still top-tier plays, but consumer trends are shifting quickly. Hedge funds are positioning defensively in financials and healthcare, while speculative bets in crypto and meme coins remain volatile. Stay tactical, take profits, and watch for dips!

Sincerely, 

LINDA