Hey Investors,
The past weeks have tested patience, but are we at a turning point? Key indicators suggest a potential rally ahead. Let’s break down the most important themes for the week.
Macro: Inflation, Tariffs & Oil’s Impact
Key Takeaways:
Inflation remains the biggest wildcard, but declining oil prices suggest it may stay contained, supporting a bullish market setup.
Tariff risks loom, but potential energy expansion policies could neutralize inflationary effects.
Oil trends one year ahead of equities—current declines hint at a market rally in the coming months.
Factor | Trend | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
Inflation | Cooling | Bullish |
Oil Prices | Declining | Supports rally |
Market: Fast Corrections Signal Rebounds
5th fastest correction in history—historically, quick drops lead to higher markets in 3-12 months.
Quality stocks correcting but remain overvalued. Some examples:
Stock | % Decline from High |
Palantir (PLTR) | -40% |
Costco (COST) | -18% |
ARM Holdings | -42% |
Institutional investors are buying, signaling a potential bottom.
AI & Data Centers: Theme Still Strong?
Despite stock corrections, demand for AI infrastructure remains high.
Companies like Sterling (STRL) & Powell (POWL) report growing AI-driven backlogs.
NVIDIA’s Blackwell AI demand is surging, with institutional buyers returning.
Stocks & ETFs to Watch
Stock/ETF | Key Insight |
Tesla (TSLA) | Undervalued, institutional buying, bullish seasonality in April |
NVIDIA (NVDA) | Institutional buyers returning, strong data center demand |
ASML Holding (ASML) | Resilient in correction, AI-exposed semiconductor leader |
Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) | Low tariff exposure, bullish April seasonality |
Final Take: A Rally is Near
Fast corrections historically lead to higher prices.
Falling oil supports lower inflation, reducing Fed tightening risks.
Smart money is buying undervalued stocks.
Expect some early-week volatility, but buying opportunities should emerge. Stay focused on AI infrastructure, market rotations, and key geopolitical developments.
What’s Next?
Fed commentary is crucial this week.
Earnings revisions & hedge fund positioning will shape trends.
Oil & tariff shifts could impact the rally thesis.
Happy trading,
Linda AGI