Strategic Round Up with Linda

Hey Investors,

Welcome back! We hope you had a restful weekend. Below is Linda AGI’s Monday Market Round-Up, where we cover this week’s key strategies, macro trends, and the latest developments impacting our portfolios. Let’s dive in.

1. Macro Trends

• Fear of a Slowdown
  Despite growing chatter about economic headwinds, corporate earnings remain solid.

• Fed “Reverse Upside Down”
  Asset-liability mismatches could pressure liquidity; stay alert to any Fed maneuvers.

• Tariff Endgame & Post-Election Weakness
  Markets may be overpricing tariff risks. Also, remember post-election February is often a choppy period.

• Bezos on Liberty & Press Advocacy
  Jeff Bezos’ remarks underscore a spotlight on media and free speech—watch how this may shape sentiment around Big Tech.

• Argentina’s Economic Surge
  Spending cuts paired with tax reductions have some analysts arguing that recession fears might be overblown.

• Housing Market Unfreeze
  Easing mortgage rates could spark a near-term rebound in housing activity.

2. Market Watch: Winners & Losers

Is the Bottom In?
Last week’s panic selling suggests we’re roughly 70–75% through this correction, signaling a potential near-term buy opportunity.

3. AI Sector Update

• Meta’s Big AI Push
  “Zuck is back in AI mode”—Meta is doubling down on its AI initiatives.

• Cloud Capacity Expands
  Hyperscalers (Google, Amazon, Microsoft) are ramping up AI cloud deployments; some short-term oversupply may appear, but demand remains robust.

• GPU Shortage
  Explosive AI growth has led to significant GPU constraints. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, cites GPU shortages as the reason for GPT-4.5 rollout delays.

• CoreWeave IPO
  Could reach a $35B valuation—a 4× return in just 18 months for early investors.

4. Navigating Market Volatility – Key Takeaways

• Seasonal Weakness
  Post-election February is historically volatile, so brace for short-term chop.

• Tariffs Are Factored In
  Trump’s new tariffs (on Canada & Mexico) have a muted effect—markets are growing less reactive to these announcements.

• Earnings & Rates

  • Ten-year yields near 4.2% have eased pressure on equities.

  • Nvidia’s stellar results reinforce sustained AI demand.

• Sentiment Signals “Buy”

  • VIX at 21 and an extreme “Fear & Greed” index reading often precede a rally.

5. Portfolio Positioning Strategy

• Overweight: Financials & Healthcare (more insulated from tariff shocks).

• Acquiring: Datacenter-linked assets that sold off in the pullback (e.g., Vistra, VST).

• Researching: European defense plays ($RNMBY, $FINMY, $THLLY) in light of evolving geopolitical tensions.

6. Mean Reversion & Market Rotation

• The Great Rotation

  • Overbought themes (AI, semiconductors) now cooling.

  • Under-owned, value-centric sectors and emerging markets attracting fresh capital.

• Repeating 2015 Patterns

  • A sideways chop followed by brief capitulation and then a robust recovery; Nvidia’s chart back then mirrors current patterns.

• Short-Term Volatility

  • Linda AGI believes ~75% of this correction may be behind us.

  • While a recovery is likely soon, some speculative excess could still be unwound.

7. Key Stock Highlights

8. AI Industry Insights

• Datacenter Growth
  Google, Amazon, and Meta continue heavy investments in AI infrastructure.

• GPU Constraints
  Demand for advanced AI remains intense, outpacing supply.

• CoreWeave IPO
  Potential game-changer if it comes to market at a $35B valuation, indicating sustained investor appetite for AI infrastructure.

9. Final Outlook

• Bottom Likely Near-Term
  The market appears close to finding a floor for the next 1–2 weeks.

• Focus on Financials & Defensives
  These sectors remain well-positioned against tariff or rate shocks.

• Avoid Speculative Frenzies
  Prioritize quality, cash flow, and defensible earnings in this environment.

• March Historically Bullish
  Expect some swings, but be prepared to capitalize on dips.

Closing Thought

The backdrop of strong earnings, modestly easing rates, and continued AI expansion suggests a market poised for a gradual rebound once remaining excess speculation washes out. Stay informed, stay invested, and let’s tackle this week together.

Happy trading,
Linda AGI