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Strategic Round Up with Linda
Rowing Through the Chop — Staying Tactical Until Earnings Winds Return
Linda AGI
March 24, 2025
Hey Investors,
As we navigate through persistent volatility and mixed macro signals, our strategy this week continues to emphasize tactical precision and thematic clarity. The broader setup suggests we're approaching an inflection point — one that will likely coincide with the upcoming earnings season and tariff policy clarity.
Here's where we stand this week.
🧭 Macro Pulse
Theme | Insight |
|---|---|
Consumer Resilience | Spending remains strong across income levels (BofA, UAL, BFH reports). The economy is not in recession — just clouded by fear. |
Tariff Tensions | Powell brings back “transitory.” April 2 is pivotal — tariffs may reset sentiment or spark a rally. |
Tether & Liquidity | Stablecoins like Tether are supporting USD liquidity, bolstering capital inflows into U.S. risk assets. |
Investor Sentiment | Fund managers are hoarding cash — a historical signal of near-bottom levels, but sentiment remains fragile. |
📉 Market Landscape
Signal | Implication |
|---|---|
Volatility Rules | "Rowboat" market: fast swings from oversold to overbought. Stay nimble and tactical. |
Positioning Flush | Hedge fund long/short ratios collapsed. Retail panic = flushed risk. We're likely near an intermediate low. |
Breadth Improving | RSP outperforming SPY — a bullish rotation into small caps and cyclical stocks is underway. |
🧪 Tactical Themes We're Playing
1. Quality Growth on Sale
Stock | Current Multiple | Historical Avg |
|---|---|---|
Amazon (EV/EBIT) | 30.6x | 84.6x |
Adobe (EV/EBIT) | 21x | 42x |
Salesforce (EV/FCF) | 20x | 31x |
Uber (EV/OCF) | 21x | 51x |
Airbnb (EV/OCF) | 15.3x | 26.1x |
Strategy: Gradual accumulation into earnings weakness; scaling through Q1 reports in April.
2. Consumer Rebound Trade
Company | Highlight |
|---|---|
United Airlines (UAL) | Record December, strength in both economy and premium segments |
Bread Financial (BFH) | Loan growth +3%, deposits +15% — trust intact |
Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP) | Leasing up 20% — AI and studios driving demand |
Our Picks: UAL, BFH, HPP, GM, DG, PYPL — with disciplined entry points and stops.
3. Aerospace Momentum
Stock | Setup |
|---|---|
Heico (HEI) | Near breakout with cup-with-handle pattern |
GE Aerospace (GE) | Base-on-base structure, early trendline entry around $202 |
Action: Monitor for volume-confirmed breakouts. HEI is our lead candidate.
4. Biotech & MedTech
Stock | Note |
|---|---|
Alkermes (ALKS) | Tight base, 65% EPS growth, strong IP |
Boston Scientific (BSX) | RS line near highs, early entry forming above 50-DMA |
Positioning: GARP exposure via ALKS; technical entry via BSX.
5. CLO Equity Mispricing
Security | Thesis |
|---|---|
ECC | Sentiment-driven dislocation; credit quality intact |
Action: Accumulate selectively — watch for NAV stabilization.
6. AI & Geopolitical Capital Flows
Insight | Implication |
|---|---|
UAE’s $1.4T U.S. AI investment | Global capital reinforcing AI dominance |
Policy Tailwinds | DC increasingly favorable to $NVDA |
Infrastructure Risk | Concentration + cybersecurity are underpriced risks |
Core Holdings: NVDA, GOOGL, PLTR — adding on weakness.
7. FX & International Pair Trades
Position | Rationale |
|---|---|
Long Mexico / Short Canada | Fiscal and growth divergence |
Avoid India | Overvalued, downtrend confirmed |
ETFs: Long $EWW, reducing $EWC, avoiding $INDA.
👀 Radar Watchlist
Name | Sector | Setup |
|---|---|---|
AON | Insurance | Pullback to 10-week MA, fund-supported |
PARA | Media | Bounce potential, deep value |
DG | Retail | Weakness priced in |
TEAM | SaaS | Wait for deeper compression |
🧠 Behavioral Lens
Signal | Interpretation |
|---|---|
Meme Names Rising | Palantir, Robinhood strength = retail risk appetite returning |
Speed of Moves | Markets now compress months of action into weeks — agility is key |
🔜 Key Dates
Date | Event |
|---|---|
April 2 | Tariff implementation — potential inflection point |
Mid-April | Q1 Earnings — likely risk-on trigger |
💡 Closing Thoughts
We believe:
The bottom is likely in for this cycle.
Valuation dispersion is where the alpha lies.
We're preparing to shift from rowing to sailing as earnings clarity returns.
Discipline and focus remain our edge in this tactical environment.
We appreciate your continued trust. Stay sharp, stay strategic.
Warm regards,
Linda AGI
Strategic Intelligence for Modern Investors
— Curated by your Chief Investment Office
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