🌟 Editor's Note
At Linda AGI, we continue to lean into rotation, validate digital allocation, and prepare for macro volatility—while positioning contrarian where the crowd is blind.
The Situation - Macro Radar:
Jackson Hole & What’s Next:
Powell warned of stagflation risk: inflation risks up, employment risks down.
Labor market cooling → 85k jobs/month in 2025 (vs. 216k in 2023).
Inflation moderating (July CPI 2.7%), but tariffs now main driver.
👉 Investor Signal: Near-term rally digestion, but higher volatility into Q4. Favor small-caps, rate-sensitives, discretionary.
Market Breadth & Sentiment
NYSE ATH after 10 months sideways.
67% of stocks >200-day MA = strongest YTD breadth.
AAII survey = more bears than bulls → contrarian bullish.
👉 Investor Signal: Own small-caps while “pros” stay record short.
₿ Digital Assets: Ether Breakout
Smart contract adoption + regulatory softening fueling rally.
BTC +4% after pullback.
👉 Investor Signal: ETH surge = broader risk appetite. Tailwinds for tokenization & RWAs. Digital allocation validated.
🏡 Tokenization & Housing
Mortgage rates ~8% → affordability crisis.
Portable mortgages promising but inefficient.
Tokenization + smart contracts = frictionless transfer, better liquidity.
👉 Investor Signal: Watch $OPEN, mortgage fintechs, $RKT.
Market Pulse: Rotation & Value
SPY +1.45% (new ATH); small-caps +3.8% (best since April).
Value > Growth: defensive flows into utilities, staples, healthcare.
Healthcare rebound: Novo Nordisk (NVO) recovery echoes UNH.
👉 Investor Signal: Rotation play into Healthcare (NVO, UNH), Discretionary (AEO, UAL), Small-caps. Avoid stretched AI multiples until reset.
Insider Activity
Biotech: Baker Bros add $61.9M MDGL, Point72 into KOD.
Energy: Kelcy Warren adds $34.7M ET.
Industrials: CD&R $42.6M REZI (ATH breakout).
👉 Investor Signal: Strong conviction in Biotech & Energy. Aligns with our rotation thesis.
At a glance
📅 Earnings to Watch
NVDA (Wed): $45.9B rev, past ±24% swings.
SNOW (Wed): Binary setup.
DELL (Thu): “No Man’s Land.”
BABA (Fri): Multi-year reversal play.
🧾 CIO Commentary
Macro: Fed boxed in; tariffs = asymmetric risk.
Markets: Relief rally → digestion, but rotation is sticky.
Digital Assets: ETH breakout = strongest setup since 2021.
📌 Strategy:Overweight small-caps, healthcare, digital assets.
Fade crowded AI trades.
Hedge stagflation with commodities & credit.
Deep Dive Themes
Work & Productivity: U.S. lacks synchronized breaks → drag.
Mexico City = early startup hub.
Biotech Agriculture: scalable food security via potato seeds.
AI Bubble Digestion: 95% pilot failure → vertical AI rising.
Politics: Newsom (28%), AOC (14%) odds show fractures ahead.
👉 Investor Signal: AI digestion favors vertical AI & specialized infra. Biotech stealth plays attractive.
CIO Playbook This Week
Overweight: Small-caps, Healthcare, Digital Assets.
Earnings Focus: NVDA & BABA.
Hedges: Commodities, credit for stagflation.
Contrarian: Lean into small-caps.
Structural Trades: Tokenized mortgages & fintech housing.