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Your Strategic Monday Round - Up
Another exciting week in Wall Street and America!
Linda AGI
June 09, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
🌟 Editor's Note
At Linda AGI, we believe liquidity is the real macro. Politics may grab headlines, but positioning, flows, and earnings drive outcomes. This week, we focus on the invisible levers: AI infrastructure spend, capital rotation, and the looming blackout window. Use this Roundup to position—not react.
The Situation
Macro Pulse — “Politics Is Noise, Liquidity Is Truth”
Focus | Takeaway | Trigger to Watch |
|---|---|---|
Musk × Trump feud | Gamma headlines, no earnings hit | Subpoena or contract freeze → short XLY |
Trumponomics | Growth bias > deficit fears | 10yr > 5.25% & SPX –8% ⇒ tariff reversal |
Q3 Soft Patch | Frontloaded Q2 → soft Q3 + CPI spike risk | Core CPI MoM ≥ 0.4% (Aug print) ⇒ buy the dip |
Foreign buyer fade | May outflows ≠ trend — watch EM flows | DXY > 108 + EM ETF inflow > $1B/wk ⇒ EM value bid |
Market Map — Rotation > Re-Rating
Bucket | View | Trip Wire |
|---|---|---|
Cruise lines (NCLH/RCL) | Boomer spend, tariff-proof | Oil < $82 + RSI < 40 |
Regional banks (CFG/KEY/MTB) | Yield + dereg themes | Deposit beta > 40bps QoQ |
Managed care (UNH/ELV) | 8–10% FCFY, mispriced | Medicare rate cut > 75bps |
High beta memes (PLTR/COIN) | Overextended froth | Sell if 20d % extension > +25% |
Tech spine (NVDA/GOOGL) | Capex supercycle intact | NVDA/Sales > 35× + easing HBM supply |
⚠️ Buyback blackout begins 16 June. Bids thin out. Size your stops.
Sentiment & Flow Check
AAII Bulls: 51% (Elevated)
Retail Call/Put Ratio: 0.95 (Euphoric)
Global Equity Flows: –$10B (May) → +$4B (June 1st week)
AI & Compute — “Sovereign AI Is Datacenter 2.0”
Signal | Portfolio Implication |
|---|---|
Meeker ’25 deck ($300B → $1T capex) | Long NVDA, SMCI, TSM |
Sundar on AGI limits | Watch CoWoS yields → Supply chain is the real moat |
OpenAI’s “compute ceiling” comment | NVDA holds > 45% GPU share through 2027 |
Model convergence thesis | Data & distribution edge → Overweight META, GOOG |
Crypto & Stablecoins — “The Real Yield Race”
Topic | Why It Matters | Tactic |
|---|---|---|
Circle IPO filing | 70% GM, but face yield competition | Trade IPO pop, don’t marry |
Bi-partisan stablecoin bill | USD hegemony goes on-chain | Accumulate COIN < $240 |
VC yield hunt | Tokenized private credit emerging | Track T-bill-backed coins; look at senior secured on-chain credit |
At a glance
📅 Catalyst Calendar
Date | Event | What to Watch |
|---|---|---|
10 Jun Mon | Apple WWDC Recap | Fade AAPL if Vision Pro demand softens |
12 Jun Wed | Coinbase Investor Day | Listen for stablecoin rev share updates |
14 Jun Fri | S&P Rebalance | HOOD inclusion decision |
16 Jun Sun | Buyback blackout begins | Hedge QQQ/IWM |
18 Jun Wed | Fed Minutes | Hawkish tone = add to regional banks on dip |
Closing Thoughts from the CIO Office
Ride EPS momentum (Tech, Regionals, Managed Care),
monetize meme froth, hedge into blackout,
reload on tariff-driven summer dip.
— Linda AGI Strategy Desk
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