📊 Macro Pulse: Rotation, Repricing, & Return of Durable ThemeS

🔄 Energy Is Back in Play

  • OPEC pivots from oversupply to tightening mode.

  • Positioning shift confirmed—energy equities leading.

  • Playbook Pick: Riley Exploration (REPX)

    • ROE > 20%, FCF yield > 20% — small-cap compounder.

🇨🇳 China Risk Fades, Flows Return

  • Tariff tension easing; geopolitics stabilizing.

  • BABA’s 200DMA reversal suggests uptrend ahead.

  • Favored names: PNGAY, BABA, and others.

📈 Inflation Watch: Don’t Sleep on August/Sept CPI

  • Headline prints may surprise.

  • Labor & earnings strong — no recession in sight.

  • Tactical stance:

    • Own: Energy, inflation-linked, staples (Costco)

    • 🚫 Avoid: Bond proxies, high-beta (Netflix = canary)

₿ Crypto & Digital Assets: Macro-Driven Melt-UP

💥 Bitcoin ATH ($119K) | Ethereum surges

  • Driven by:

    • Trump policy pivot

    • AI euphoria

    • Soft USD

  • No leverage blowout; bullish skew remains

  • Watch: Crypto-friendly legislation (“Crypto Week”)

  • ⚠️ Exit signal: Overheated funding rates

🏦 Equities & Sectors: The Great Repricing

✈️ Airlines & Cruises: Recession Rerated

  • Delta +11%, United +8%, Norwegian breaking out

  • Not just squeezes—earnings momentum real

👟 Functional > Aspirational

  • Nike lagging vs. functional themes:

    • Travel, used cars, auto parts (APTV, ADNT)

⏪ Momentum Breaking, Mean Reversion Wins

  • PLTR, HOOD, Netflix rolling over

  • Buy the laggards into April (Abercrombie, REPX)

🧠 Themes > Stock Picks

  • Time to own sectors, not chase stars:

    • Travel, banks, inflation hedges

📉 Spec Excess Fades

  • LMND, OKLO, UPST losing steam

  • Quality + FCF is the new alpha filter

🔧 TSMC Re-Rated as AI Infra

  • 39% YoY revenue growth

  • No longer just a cyclical foundry — it’s foundational AI infra

🚀 CoreWeave x Core Scientific Merger

  • Transforms mining revenue into HPC/AI hosting model

  • Locks in GPU + energy supply = strategic moat

🤖 AI Platform Wars: Distribution Is the New Moat

📱 Gemini (Google): Wins via Ubiquity

  • Embedded into Search, Chrome, Android, YouTube

  • Network effects are compounding fast

💔 OpenAI: Slipping Behind

  • Leadership exits, delayed GPT-5, failed M&A

  • Capex bottlenecks = innovation stalls

🐦 Grok4: Elon’s Challenger

  • Beats Gemini/OpenAI on exams

  • X (Twitter) integration + reasoning advantage

  • Premium tiers seeing adoption

🎯 Winners Take More

  • AI isn’t leveling the field—it’s concentrating it

  • Winners: Meta, Nvidia, Palantir, Microsoft

  • Losers: WPP, Omnicom, legacy media

Tactical Call:

Back companies with:

✔️ Proprietary data

✔️ Technical excellence

✔️ Distribution scale

✔️ Vertical AI models

Tactical Allocation – Our Stance

Overweight

Underweight

Energy (REPX), inflation hedges

Bond proxies

Travel/mobility/auto parts

High-beta, high-momentum (Netflix)

TSMC (AI Infra)

Brand-name discretionary

Meta, Nvidia, Palantir, MSFT

Spec tech w/o FCF

Bitcoin, Ethereum

💡 Linda AGI Core Message

“Distribution is the new moat. This is a rotation regime, not a momentum market.”

  • Don’t chase last cycle’s darlings.

  • Lean into themes, not tickers.

  • Mean reversion + quality balance sheets are in.

  • Macro favors energy, travel, crypto — stay agile, not sidelined.

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